Water security is an existential priority for the UAE, which ranks among the most water-scarce nations globally. The national water security strategy targets a 30 per cent reduction in per capita water consumption by 2036 while increasing treated wastewater reuse to 95 per cent. Desalination must scale capacity while transitioning from energy-intensive thermal processes to reverse osmosis technology powered by renewable energy.
Desalination Capacity Progress
| Year | Target (MIGD) | Actual (MIGD) | RO Share (%) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | — (Baseline) | 1,480 | 32% | Baseline |
| 2023 | 1,540 | 1,530 | 36% | Marginal |
| 2024 | 1,620 | 1,610 | 42% | On Track |
| 2025 | 1,720 | 1,690 (est.) | 48% | Marginal |
| 2026 | 1,820 | — | — | Pending |
| 2031 | 2,200 | — | 70% | Target |
Treated Wastewater Reuse Rates (2024)
| Emirate | Volume Treated (MGD) | Reuse Rate (%) | Primary Reuse Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abu Dhabi | 280 | 88% | District cooling and forestry |
| Dubai | 195 | 91% | Landscaping and agriculture |
| Sharjah | 65 | 78% | Landscaping |
| Northern Emirates | 45 | 62% | Agriculture |
| National Average | 585 | 84% | — |
Progress Rate Analysis
The transition from thermal desalination to reverse osmosis is the defining shift in UAE water strategy. The Taweelah and Hassyan RO plants have dramatically increased capacity while reducing energy consumption per cubic metre by approximately 75 per cent compared to multi-stage flash distillation. If the current commissioning pipeline proceeds on schedule, RO will exceed 50 per cent of total desalination capacity by 2027.
Treated wastewater reuse has improved steadily, rising from 72 per cent nationally in 2022 to 84 per cent in 2024. Abu Dhabi and Dubai are approaching the 95 per cent target ahead of schedule, but the northern emirates face infrastructure gaps in tertiary treatment and distribution networks that constrain reuse rates.
Risk Factors
| Risk | Severity | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Red tide and algal bloom events | High | Forces temporary plant shutdowns |
| Energy cost volatility | Medium | Affects desalination operating costs |
| Brine discharge environmental impact | Medium | May trigger regulatory constraints |
| Population growth exceeding projections | Medium | Strains capacity expansion timelines |
| Northern emirates infrastructure gaps | Medium | Prevents achieving national targets |
Outlook
The UAE’s water security position is improving on the supply side through aggressive RO capacity additions. Demand management remains the weaker element, with per capita consumption still among the highest globally. Achieving the 2031 targets requires combining supply expansion with behavioural change programmes, agricultural water efficiency measures, and smart metering deployment. The RO transition is ahead of schedule, but the national reuse target of 95 per cent depends on resolving northern emirate infrastructure deficits.
Current Assessment: On Track — supply expansion strong but demand reduction lagging.