The UAE’s total non-oil foreign trade exceeded AED 3.5 trillion in 2024, positioning the federation among the world’s top twenty trading nations. The trade balance — the difference between exports (including re-exports) and imports — serves as a barometer of competitiveness, industrial capacity, and the success of diversification policy. This tracker monitors the components and trajectory of the UAE’s external trade position.
Trade Balance Overview
| Year | Exports + Re-exports (AED Bn) | Imports (AED Bn) | Balance (AED Bn) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1,850 | 1,520 | +330 | Surplus |
| 2023 | 1,940 | 1,620 | +320 | Surplus |
| 2024 | 2,060 | 1,710 | +350 | Surplus |
| 2025 | 2,130 (est.) | 1,790 (est.) | +340 (est.) | Surplus |
Oil vs. Non-Oil Trade Composition
| Component | 2022 (AED Bn) | 2024 (AED Bn) | Share of Total (2024) | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & gas exports | 520 | 480 | 23.3% | -7.7% |
| Non-oil direct exports | 410 | 490 | 23.8% | +19.5% |
| Re-exports | 920 | 1,090 | 52.9% | +18.5% |
| Total exports + re-exports | 1,850 | 2,060 | 100% | +11.4% |
Re-exports remain the single largest component, reflecting the UAE’s entrepot function. Non-oil direct exports have grown at the fastest rate, driven by manufactured goods, refined petroleum products, aluminium, and processed food exports. Oil export values have declined in relative terms due to production discipline under OPEC+ and moderating commodity prices.
Top Export Destinations (2024)
| Rank | Destination | Value (AED Bn) | Primary Categories |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | India | 195 | Petroleum, gold, machinery |
| 2 | China | 142 | Petroleum, polymers, metals |
| 3 | Saudi Arabia | 98 | Vehicles, electronics, food |
| 4 | Iraq | 72 | Vehicles, food, building materials |
| 5 | Japan | 64 | LNG, petroleum, aluminium |
Import Structure
The UAE’s import base is diversified across capital goods, consumer products, and industrial inputs. Machinery and electrical equipment account for the largest category, followed by precious metals (driven by Dubai’s gold trade), vehicles, and food products. China and India together supply approximately 35 per cent of total imports by value.
Structural Indicators
| Metric | 2022 | 2024 | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-oil export share of total exports | 71.9% | 76.7% | Improving |
| Re-export ratio (re-exports / imports) | 60.5% | 63.7% | Improving |
| Trade openness (trade / GDP) | 158% | 164% | Expanding |
| Manufactured goods share of non-oil exports | 34.2% | 38.6% | Improving |
Risk Factors
| Risk | Severity | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Oil price decline below $60/bbl | High | Reduces export receipts and fiscal revenue |
| Global trade fragmentation | Medium | Disrupts re-export corridors and partner access |
| Currency appreciation (via USD peg) | Medium | Erodes export competitiveness against non-dollar peers |
| Sanctions or compliance disruption | Low-Medium | May restrict specific trade corridors |
Outlook
The UAE’s trade surplus is structurally anchored by re-export activity and growing non-oil direct exports. The continued expansion of manufacturing under Operation 300bn, combined with new CEPA agreements and the maturation of industrial free zones, supports further growth in direct export value. The critical variable for balance sustainability is whether non-oil export growth can offset any contraction in hydrocarbon export revenues during periods of lower oil prices.
Current Assessment: On Track — non-oil export growth provides structural resilience to the trade surplus.