The 40 million international visitors target transforms the UAE’s tourism sector from a Dubai-centric model into a nationwide hospitality ecosystem. Reaching this figure from the 2022 baseline of approximately 25 million arrivals requires an average annual growth rate of 5.4 per cent sustained over nine years, alongside substantial hotel inventory expansion and new destination development across all seven emirates.
Target vs. Actual Performance
| Year | Target (Millions) | Actual (Millions) | Gap (Millions) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | — (Baseline) | 25.0 | — | Baseline |
| 2023 | 27.0 | 27.2 | +0.2 | On Track |
| 2024 | 29.5 | 29.1 | -0.4 | Marginal |
| 2025 | 31.5 | 30.8 (est.) | -0.7 | Marginal |
| 2026 | 33.5 | — | — | Pending |
| 2031 | 40.0 | — | — | Target |
Source Market Analysis (2024)
| Region | Arrivals (Millions) | Share (%) | Growth (YoY) |
|---|---|---|---|
| South and East Asia | 7.8 | 26.8% | +8.2% |
| Europe | 6.4 | 22.0% | +4.5% |
| GCC and MENA | 5.5 | 18.9% | +3.8% |
| CIS and Central Asia | 3.5 | 12.0% | +11.4% |
| Americas | 2.8 | 9.6% | +6.1% |
| Africa | 1.9 | 6.5% | +7.3% |
| Other | 1.2 | 4.1% | +5.0% |
Progress Rate Analysis
The post-pandemic tourism recovery delivered strong momentum through 2023, with the UAE recapturing pre-COVID volumes faster than most competitors. Growth moderated in 2024-2025 as the recovery effect faded and the sector transitioned to organic expansion. Dubai continues to account for approximately 55 per cent of total UAE arrivals, with Abu Dhabi contributing 22 per cent and the northern emirates collectively contributing the remainder.
Hotel room supply is expanding to support the target, with an estimated 210,000 keys nationwide by end-2025 against a requirement of approximately 260,000 by 2031. Ras Al Khaimah’s Wynn resort (2027 opening), Abu Dhabi’s Saadiyat Cultural District expansion, and Sharjah’s eco-tourism developments will add capacity outside the traditional Dubai hub.
Risk Factors
| Risk | Severity | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Global economic slowdown | High | Reduces discretionary travel spend |
| Aviation capacity constraints | Medium | Limits inbound seat capacity |
| Regional geopolitical disruption | Medium | Diverts tourist flows |
| Summer heat limitations | Medium | Constrains seasonality diversification |
| Saudi Arabia tourism competition | Medium | Competes for regional visitors |
Outlook
The 40 million target is achievable given current momentum, though it requires continued hotel supply expansion, new airline route development, and successful activation of non-Dubai destinations. The CIS market represents the fastest-growing source, reflecting effective visa liberalisation and direct air connectivity expansion. Sustained investment in cultural infrastructure (Guggenheim Abu Dhabi, Natural History Museum) and entertainment assets provides the demand-side pull necessary to convert the pipeline into arrivals.
Current Assessment: On Track — marginal, requires sustained investment in capacity and new markets.