The UAE’s ambition to become a knowledge-based economy depends on scaling research and development investment from historically low levels to a target of 3 per cent of GDP by 2031. This would position the UAE alongside advanced economies such as Germany, Japan, and South Korea in R&D intensity, transforming the innovation ecosystem from one reliant on technology transfer to one generating indigenous intellectual property.
R&D Expenditure Progress
| Year | Target (% GDP) | Actual (% GDP) | Total Spend (AED Bn) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | — (Baseline) | 1.3% | 25.5 | Baseline |
| 2023 | 1.6% | 1.5% | 31.2 | Marginal |
| 2024 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 36.8 | Behind |
| 2025 | 2.2% | 1.9% (est.) | 42.0 | Behind |
| 2026 | 2.5% | — | — | Pending |
| 2031 | 3.0% | — | — | Target |
R&D Investment Composition (2024)
| Source | Spend (AED Bn) | Share (%) | Growth (YoY) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Government entities and funds | 14.2 | 38.6% | +12.4% |
| Public universities and research centres | 8.5 | 23.1% | +9.8% |
| Private sector (domestic) | 7.8 | 21.2% | +18.5% |
| Foreign-funded R&D in UAE | 4.1 | 11.1% | +22.3% |
| Non-profit and foundations | 2.2 | 6.0% | +7.1% |
Innovation Output Metrics
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patent filings (total) | 1,240 | 1,580 | 1,950 | Accelerating |
| Patents per million population | 126 | 158 | 192 | Accelerating |
| Researchers per million population | 2,150 | 2,380 | 2,640 | Growing |
| Scientific publications (indexed) | 18,400 | 21,200 | 24,800 | Growing |
| Global Innovation Index ranking | 36 | 32 | 28 | Improving |
Progress Rate Analysis
R&D spending growth has been robust in absolute terms — up 64 per cent from 2022 to 2025 — but GDP growth has been strong enough that the ratio improvement has lagged the trajectory needed to reach 3 per cent by 2031. The gap between target and actual widened in 2024-2025, suggesting the 3 per cent target may require either a GDP growth deceleration (unlikely and undesirable) or a step-change in private sector R&D mobilisation.
The positive development is private sector and foreign-funded R&D growing faster than public investment, indicating that the innovation ecosystem is beginning to generate its own momentum. Technology Innovation Institute, MBZUAI, and expanded university research mandates are contributing, but corporate R&D centres from multinationals remain the fastest-growing category.
Risk Factors
| Risk | Severity | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Private sector R&D underinvestment | High | Prevents reaching 3% GDP target |
| Researcher retention and attraction | Medium | Limits human capital for R&D |
| IP protection enforcement gaps | Medium | Discourages domestic innovation |
| GDP growth outpacing R&D spend growth | Medium | Keeps ratio below target |
| Short-term commercial focus over basic research | Low-Medium | Weakens long-term innovation pipeline |
Outlook
The 3 per cent GDP target is ambitious and currently at risk based on the trajectory gap. However, the quality of R&D output — measured by patent filings, publication impact, and Global Innovation Index improvement — is advancing faster than spending ratios suggest. Policy levers including R&D tax incentives, mandatory corporate innovation spending requirements for government contracts, and expanded visa categories for researchers are available to accelerate private sector investment. The target may need to be recalibrated to 2.5 per cent by 2031 with a revised 3 per cent timeline of 2035.
Current Assessment: Behind Target — output metrics positive but spending ratio lagging required trajectory.