Overview
Despite the UAE’s diversification progress, hydrocarbon revenue remains a critical determinant of fiscal capacity and transformation funding. This tracker monitors oil and gas revenue trends, their relationship to global crude prices, and the implications for Vision 2031 implementation.
Revenue Indicators
| Indicator | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (Est.) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murban Crude (Avg USD/bbl) | 42 | 70 | 97 | 83 | 78 | ▼ |
| Oil Revenue (AED Bn) | 155 | 280 | 390 | 340 | 310 | ▼ |
| Oil % of GDP | 26% | 30% | 33% | 27% | 24% | ▼ |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -5.2% | +2.8% | +11.3% | +5.5% | +3.8% | ▼ |
| Fiscal Breakeven Oil Price | ~65 | ~55 | ~50 | ~55 | ~55 | → |
Analysis
The UAE’s fiscal breakeven oil price — the price at which the consolidated government budget balances — has declined from approximately USD 80 per barrel in 2014 to an estimated USD 55 in recent years. This improvement reflects both expenditure discipline and the growing contribution of non-oil revenue sources including corporate tax (introduced June 2023), VAT, excise duties, and government service fees.
Price Sensitivity
A USD 10 per barrel change in average crude oil prices translates to approximately AED 35-40 billion in annual revenue variation. This sensitivity underscores why the UAE maintains substantial fiscal reserves through sovereign wealth fund allocations and why the diversification agenda under the Forward Economy pillar remains strategically urgent.
Risk Assessment
Upside risks: Geopolitical supply disruptions, OPEC+ production discipline, Asian demand growth.
Downside risks: Global recession, accelerated energy transition in key markets, OPEC+ cohesion breakdown, substitution effects from renewables and electric vehicles.
Vision 2031 Implications
Oil revenue funds a significant portion of the national transformation investment. The tracker monitors whether revenue trajectories support or constrain the pace of Vision 2031 implementation. The target of reducing oil revenue dependency to below 20% of GDP by 2031 requires sustained growth in non-oil economic activity and revenue diversification.