The AED 4 trillion non-oil foreign trade target reflects the UAE’s ambition to consolidate its position as a global trade hub. Starting from approximately AED 2.2 trillion in non-oil trade in 2022, reaching this target requires near-doubling of trade volumes within the programme period — an average annual growth rate of approximately 6.9 per cent sustained through 2031.
Target vs. Actual Performance
| Year | Target (AED Tn) | Actual (AED Tn) | Gap (AED Tn) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | — (Baseline) | 2.20 | — | Baseline |
| 2023 | 2.40 | 2.38 | -0.02 | On Track |
| 2024 | 2.65 | 2.58 | -0.07 | Marginal |
| 2025 | 2.90 | 2.82 (est.) | -0.08 | Marginal |
| 2026 | 3.15 | — | — | Pending |
| 2031 | 4.00 | — | — | Target |
Trade Flow Composition (2024)
| Category | Value (AED Bn) | Share (%) | Growth (YoY) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Re-exports | 824 | 31.9% | +6.2% |
| Direct exports (non-oil) | 542 | 21.0% | +8.7% |
| Imports | 1,214 | 47.1% | +7.1% |
Top Trading Partners (Non-Oil, 2024)
| Partner | Trade Value (AED Bn) | Share (%) |
|---|---|---|
| China | 312 | 12.1% |
| India | 286 | 11.1% |
| United States | 168 | 6.5% |
| Saudi Arabia | 142 | 5.5% |
| Japan | 98 | 3.8% |
| Turkey | 94 | 3.6% |
| Germany | 88 | 3.4% |
| United Kingdom | 82 | 3.2% |
Progress Rate Analysis
Non-oil trade has grown at approximately 6.1 per cent annually since the baseline, slightly below the 6.9 per cent required pace. The shortfall reflects moderation in global trade growth rather than any decline in the UAE’s competitive position. Re-exports — the UAE’s traditional trade strength — have maintained steady growth, while direct non-oil exports have outperformed, growing at 8.7 per cent in 2024 as manufacturing output expands.
The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPAs) programme has been a significant policy lever, with agreements signed with India, Israel, Turkey, Indonesia, and several other partners reducing tariff barriers on bilateral trade flows. The cumulative trade impact of CEPAs is estimated at AED 60-80 billion in additional annual trade by 2025.
Risk Factors
| Risk | Severity | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Global trade protectionism | High | Constrains multilateral trade expansion |
| Supply chain restructuring | Medium | Disrupts established re-export flows |
| Chinese economic slowdown | Medium | Reduces trade with largest partner |
| Regional logistics competition | Medium | Oman and Saudi ports expanding capacity |
| Currency exposure | Low-Medium | AED-USD peg limits competitiveness adjustment |
Outlook
The AED 4 trillion target requires continued acceleration from current growth rates. The CEPA strategy provides a structural uplift, and the expansion of Jebel Ali, Khalifa Port, and air cargo capacity supports volume growth. The critical challenge is transitioning the trade mix from re-export-heavy to a higher share of direct exports, which carry greater GDP multiplier effects and align with the Operation 300bn industrial strategy. If global trade conditions remain broadly favourable, the target is achievable by 2031-2032.
Current Assessment: Marginal — on trajectory but requires CEPA benefits to fully materialise.