Overview
Economic diversification is the foundational strategic priority of We the UAE 2031. The non-oil GDP share measures how effectively the economy is reducing dependence on hydrocarbon revenues. The target is to sustain non-oil GDP above 70 per cent of total output on a consistent basis, insulating the economy from commodity price cycles and positioning the UAE as a knowledge-driven, services-oriented economy by 2031.
Current Data
| Year | Non-Oil GDP (AED Bn) | Total GDP (AED Bn) | Non-Oil Share (%) | YoY Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1,045 | 1,490 | 70.1% | — |
| 2022 | 1,128 | 1,675 | 67.3% | -2.8 |
| 2023 | 1,235 | 1,820 | 67.9% | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 1,348 | 1,960 | 68.8% | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 1,460 (est.) | 2,105 (est.) | 69.4% (est.) | +0.6 |
| 2031 | — | 3,000 | 70%+ | Target |
Trend Analysis
The non-oil share dropped to 67.3 per cent in 2022 as surging oil prices inflated the hydrocarbon sector’s nominal contribution. This was a compositional effect rather than a sign of diversification reversal — non-oil output continued growing in absolute terms. Since 2023, the non-oil share has recovered steadily at approximately 0.6-0.9 percentage points per year as oil prices normalised and service sectors expanded.
Key non-oil growth drivers include financial services, tourism, real estate, logistics, technology, and manufacturing. Dubai’s economy is already approximately 95 per cent non-oil, while Abu Dhabi’s structural shift has been slower but accelerating through ADGM financial services growth and industrial zone expansion.
Target Assessment
| Indicator | 2022 | 2025 (est.) | 2031 Target | Trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-oil share | 67.3% | 69.4% | 70%+ | On Track |
| Non-oil GDP growth rate | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.0%+ | Marginal |
| Services sector share | 52.1% | 54.8% | 58%+ | On Track |
The 70 per cent threshold is achievable by 2027-2028 at current pace, suggesting the target may be conservative. The more meaningful question is whether non-oil output can sustain 6+ per cent growth through 2031 to support the absolute GDP target.
Vision 2031 Alignment
Non-oil GDP share is a core diversification metric embedded across multiple We the UAE 2031 pillars. It connects to the industrial strategy (Operation 300bn), tourism targets, digital economy development, and trade expansion through CEPAs. The share metric alone is insufficient — the vision requires both high non-oil share and high non-oil growth rates simultaneously, ensuring diversification is driven by genuine sectoral strength rather than merely by oil price weakness.
Current Assessment: On Track — recovering from 2022 oil price distortion with steady structural improvement.