The 80 per cent non-oil GDP target is the structural backbone of We the UAE 2031’s economic vision. It requires the UAE to reduce its dependence on hydrocarbon revenues to no more than 20 per cent of total GDP by 2031, building on decades of diversification that has already transformed the economy from near-total oil dependence in the 1970s to a mixed model dominated by services, trade, and real estate.
Target vs. Actual Performance
| Year | Target (%) | Actual Non-Oil Share (%) | Gap (pp) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | — (Baseline) | 73.2 | — | Baseline |
| 2023 | 74.5 | 74.8 | +0.3 | On Track |
| 2024 | 76.0 | 75.5 | -0.5 | Marginal |
| 2025 | 77.0 | 76.3 (est.) | -0.7 | At Risk |
| 2026 | 78.0 | — | — | Pending |
| 2031 | 80.0 | — | — | Target |
Progress Rate Analysis
The non-oil share metric is inherently sensitive to oil prices. When crude prices rise, the oil sector’s GDP contribution increases mechanically, compressing the non-oil share even if non-oil output is growing strongly. This occurred in late 2024 when a brief price spike to $92/bbl temporarily reversed diversification gains despite continued non-oil expansion.
Adjusted for oil price effects, the underlying diversification trend shows annual non-oil GDP growth of approximately 5.8 per cent since 2022, outpacing total GDP growth. This structural trajectory, if sustained, would deliver the 80 per cent target by 2030 — one year ahead of schedule — assuming oil prices remain in the $70-80/bbl range.
Sectoral Contribution to Non-Oil Growth
| Sector | Share of Non-Oil GDP (2025 est.) | Growth Rate (2024) |
|---|---|---|
| Financial services | 14.2% | 7.1% |
| Real estate and construction | 13.8% | 6.4% |
| Wholesale and retail trade | 12.5% | 5.9% |
| Manufacturing | 9.8% | 8.2% |
| Transport and logistics | 8.6% | 6.8% |
| Tourism and hospitality | 7.4% | 9.3% |
| Technology and communications | 6.1% | 11.5% |
| Other services | 27.6% | 4.2% |
Risk Factors
| Risk | Severity | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Sustained oil price surge above $90/bbl | High | Mechanically reduces non-oil share |
| Non-oil sector slowdown | Medium | Stalls diversification momentum |
| Real estate market correction | Medium | Drags largest non-oil contributor |
| Regional competition from Saudi giga-projects | Medium | Diverts investment and talent |
Outlook
The 80 per cent target is well within reach if current structural trends continue. The UAE’s non-oil economy has demonstrated consistent growth above 5 per cent annually, driven by financial services expansion, tourism recovery, and an accelerating technology sector. The primary risk is exogenous — an oil price environment that inflates the denominator faster than the non-oil numerator can grow. Policy levers including free zone expansion, visa reforms, and industrial incentives under Operation 300bn are correctly oriented to sustain non-oil momentum.
Current Assessment: On Track — with sensitivity to oil price volatility.