Operation 300bn sets the UAE’s manufacturing ambition: industrial sector GDP of AED 300 billion by 2031, up from approximately AED 197 billion in 2022. This requires a compound annual growth rate near 4.8 per cent in real terms, demanding both capacity expansion and productivity gains across the federation’s industrial base. This tracker monitors manufacturing output against that trajectory.
Manufacturing GDP: Target vs. Actual
| Year | Target (AED Bn) | Actual (AED Bn) | Gap (AED Bn) | On Track |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 197 (Baseline) | 197 | — | Baseline |
| 2023 | 207 | 209 | +2 | On Track |
| 2024 | 218 | 221 | +3 | On Track |
| 2025 | 230 | 228 (est.) | -2 | Marginal |
| 2026 | 243 | — | — | Pending |
| 2031 | 300 | — | — | Target |
Sub-Sector Output Composition
| Sub-Sector | 2024 Output (AED Bn) | Share | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Refined petroleum & petrochemicals | 62.4 | 28.2% | +3.1% |
| Metals & aluminium | 38.9 | 17.6% | +5.4% |
| Food & beverage processing | 28.7 | 13.0% | +7.8% |
| Pharmaceuticals & medical devices | 16.2 | 7.3% | +12.4% |
| Building materials & cement | 22.1 | 10.0% | +4.2% |
| Machinery & equipment | 14.8 | 6.7% | +6.1% |
| Other manufacturing | 37.9 | 17.2% | +5.3% |
Pharmaceuticals and medical devices represent the fastest-growing sub-sector, albeit from a low base. This aligns with targeted policy interventions including the Abu Dhabi pharma cluster at KIZAD and Dubai Science Park’s biotech incubation programmes. Food and beverage processing has also outperformed, driven by national food security imperatives and regional export demand.
Industrial Zone Performance
Abu Dhabi’s industrial zones — KIZAD, ICAD, and Musaffah — account for approximately 45 per cent of national manufacturing output. Dubai Industrial City and Jebel Ali Free Zone contribute a further 28 per cent. The northern emirates, particularly Ras Al Khaimah’s ceramics and building materials cluster and Sharjah’s light manufacturing base, provide the remaining share.
Purchasing Managers’ Index Trends
The UAE’s manufacturing PMI has remained above the 50.0 expansion threshold for most of the post-pandemic period, averaging 54.8 during 2024. New orders and output sub-indices have been the primary drivers, though input cost pressures and supply chain normalisation introduced volatility in specific quarters.
Structural Challenges
Achieving the AED 300 billion target requires overcoming several persistent constraints. Energy costs, while subsidised relative to global averages, still affect competitiveness for energy-intensive industries. Skilled labour availability, particularly for advanced manufacturing processes, relies heavily on expatriate recruitment. Domestic supply chain depth remains limited for complex manufactured goods, requiring significant import content in many production processes.
Risk Factors
| Risk | Severity | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Global commodity price volatility | Medium | Affects input costs and output pricing |
| Labour market tightening | Medium | Constrains capacity expansion timelines |
| Energy subsidy reform | Low-Medium | May increase production costs for heavy industry |
| Trade barrier escalation | Medium | Restricts export market access |
Outlook
The AED 300 billion target remains within reach but requires sustained investment in new capacity, particularly in higher-value sub-sectors. The pharmaceutical, aerospace components, and advanced materials segments offer the highest incremental growth potential. Continued industrial zone expansion and the maturation of Make it in the Emirates procurement policies will be critical enablers through the programme’s second half.
Current Assessment: On Track — but higher-value segment acceleration needed to maintain trajectory.