Operation 300bn aims to grow the UAE’s industrial sector GDP from AED 133 billion in 2021 to AED 300 billion by 2031 — a target that requires more than doubling industrial output within a decade. This is among the most ambitious structural targets in the entire We the UAE 2031 programme, demanding sustained annual industrial growth above 8 per cent alongside significant expansion in advanced manufacturing, technology production, and value-added processing.
Target vs. Actual Performance
| Year | Target (AED Bn) | Actual (AED Bn) | Gap (AED Bn) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 133 (Baseline) | 133 | — | Baseline |
| 2022 | 153 | 148 | -5 | Marginal |
| 2023 | 172 | 162 | -10 | At Risk |
| 2024 | 193 | 178 | -15 | At Risk |
| 2025 | 215 | 194 (est.) | -21 | At Risk |
| 2026 | 238 | — | — | Pending |
| 2031 | 300 | — | — | Target |
Industrial Sector Breakdown (2024)
| Sub-Sector | Output (AED Bn) | Share (%) | Growth (YoY) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metals and fabrication | 34.2 | 19.2% | +5.8% |
| Food and beverages | 28.6 | 16.1% | +7.2% |
| Chemicals and plastics | 24.1 | 13.5% | +6.4% |
| Machinery and equipment | 18.9 | 10.6% | +9.8% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 14.2 | 8.0% | +12.3% |
| Electronics and technology | 12.8 | 7.2% | +14.6% |
| Building materials | 15.4 | 8.7% | +4.1% |
| Other manufacturing | 29.8 | 16.7% | +5.5% |
Progress Rate Analysis
Industrial GDP has grown at approximately 7.5 per cent annually since the 2021 baseline, trailing the 8.5 per cent compound growth rate required to hit AED 300 billion. The shortfall is cumulative — each year of underperformance raises the bar for subsequent years. To reach the target from the 2025 estimated base of AED 194 billion, the sector now needs to grow at roughly 7.5 per cent annually over the remaining six years, which would deliver approximately AED 300 billion by 2031.
The encouraging signal is the growth composition. Higher-value sub-sectors — pharmaceuticals, electronics, and machinery — are growing fastest, reflecting the strategy’s emphasis on moving up the value chain rather than merely expanding commodity processing.
Risk Factors
| Risk | Severity | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Energy cost increases | High | Erodes manufacturing competitiveness |
| Supply chain disruption | High | Constrains input availability |
| Labour availability in technical roles | Medium | Limits capacity expansion |
| Regional industrial competition | Medium | Competing incentive packages |
| Technology transfer delays | Medium | Slows advanced manufacturing shift |
Outlook
Operation 300bn’s AED 300 billion target is the most structurally challenging of the We the UAE 2031 economic targets. Industrial expansion requires long lead times for facility construction, supply chain development, and workforce training that cannot be accelerated through policy alone. The Make it in the Emirates campaign and industrial incentive packages under the Ministry of Industry and Advanced Technology are correctly targeted but need sustained execution over the programme’s remaining years. The target may be reached by 2032-2033 rather than 2031, representing a one-to-two-year delay rather than structural failure.
Current Assessment: At Risk — underlying momentum positive but cumulative gap widening.