Overview
The UAE requires sustained GDP growth averaging 6-7 per cent in nominal terms annually to reach the AED 3 trillion target by 2031. This tracker focuses on the annual growth rate itself rather than the absolute GDP figure, measuring the pace of economic expansion across both hydrocarbon and non-oil sectors. Growth rate consistency matters as much as the headline number because volatile swings signal structural fragility that could undermine long-term targets.
Current Data
| Year | Real GDP Growth (%) | Nominal GDP Growth (%) | IMF Forecast (%) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3.9 | 11.2 | — | Recovery |
| 2022 | 7.9 | 17.4 | — | Baseline |
| 2023 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.5 | Achieved |
| 2024 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.9 | Achieved |
| 2025 | 4.2 (est.) | 5.8 (est.) | 4.1 | On Track |
| 2026 | — | — | 4.3 | Pending |
Trend Analysis
Real GDP growth moderated from the post-pandemic rebound of 7.9 per cent in 2022 to a more sustainable 3.6-4.2 per cent range during 2023-2025. This deceleration is structural rather than concerning because the 2022 figure was amplified by oil price spikes and base effects. The 4 per cent real growth corridor represents strong performance by global standards, exceeding G20 averages by approximately 1.5 percentage points. Non-oil sectors have contributed an increasing share of growth, with services, tourism, and logistics each expanding above headline rates.
Nominal growth rates remain below the roughly 6.6 per cent annual average needed for the AED 3 trillion target. The gap between required and achieved nominal growth reflects moderate global inflation and oil price normalisation from 2022 peaks.
Target Assessment
| Metric | Required | Achieved (2023-2025 Avg) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP growth | 6.6% | 5.3% | -1.3 pp |
| Real GDP growth | 4.5% | 3.9% | -0.6 pp |
| Non-oil GDP growth | 5.5% | 5.1% | -0.4 pp |
The growth rate shortfall is manageable if the UAE can accelerate to 7+ per cent nominal growth from 2027 onward, supported by megaproject completions and CEPA trade dividend realisation.
Vision 2031 Alignment
GDP growth rate targets align directly with We the UAE 2031’s headline economic pillar. Achieving consistent 4+ per cent real growth while expanding non-oil output positions the economy for the structural diversification the vision demands. The growth composition matters as much as the rate — the vision requires non-oil sectors to drive an increasing majority of incremental GDP, shifting the growth engine away from hydrocarbon dependency.
Current Assessment: On Track with caution — real growth solid but nominal rate needs acceleration.