The AED 3 trillion GDP target represents the centrepiece of We the UAE 2031’s economic ambition. It requires the UAE to expand nominal GDP from approximately AED 1.68 trillion in 2022 to AED 3 trillion by 2031 — a cumulative increase of roughly 79 per cent over the programme’s nine-year horizon. This tracker measures verified GDP output against that trajectory.
Target vs. Actual Performance
| Year | Target (AED Bn) | Actual (AED Bn) | Gap (AED Bn) | On Track |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1,680 (Baseline) | 1,675 | -5 | Baseline |
| 2023 | 1,830 | 1,820 | -10 | Marginal |
| 2024 | 1,990 | 1,960 | -30 | At Risk |
| 2025 | 2,160 | 2,105 (est.) | -55 | At Risk |
| 2026 | 2,340 | — | — | Pending |
| 2031 | 3,000 | — | — | Target |
Required Growth Rate Analysis
To reach AED 3 trillion by 2031, the UAE needs an average annual nominal GDP growth rate of approximately 6.6 per cent. Actual performance through 2024 has averaged closer to 5.2 per cent in nominal terms. The gap between the required trajectory and realised growth has widened from AED 10 billion in 2023 to an estimated AED 55 billion by end-2025.
Real GDP growth has remained positive, supported by hydrocarbons revenue resilience and non-oil sector expansion. However, the nominal target is sensitive to global commodity price cycles and inflation dynamics, both of which introduce volatility that policy cannot fully control.
Risk Factors
| Risk | Severity | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Oil price decline below $65/bbl | High | Compresses nominal GDP regardless of real output |
| Global recession or trade contraction | Medium | Reduces export receipts and FDI-linked output |
| Inflation undershoot vs. projections | Medium | Nominal GDP falls short even if real growth holds |
| Regional geopolitical disruption | Medium | Dampens investment flows and tourism revenues |
| Delayed megaproject delivery | Low-Medium | Pushes GDP contributions into later years |
Structural Drivers
The GDP growth programme relies on parallel expansion across multiple sectors. Non-oil GDP must grow faster than the headline number, requiring acceleration in manufacturing (Operation 300bn), technology, tourism, and financial services. Large-scale infrastructure investments — including Abu Dhabi’s Masdar City expansion, Dubai South logistics corridor, and Ras Al Khaimah’s Wynn resort development — provide pipeline support through 2028-2030.
Population growth, projected at 2-3 per cent annually through immigration-driven labour force expansion, provides a baseline demand floor. However, productivity-led growth remains the more challenging requirement, particularly in knowledge-intensive sectors where the UAE is still building institutional capacity.
Outlook
The AED 3 trillion target remains achievable but requires a meaningful acceleration from 2026 onward. If nominal GDP growth averages 7.2 per cent over the remaining five years (2026-2031), the target is within reach. This is ambitious but not unprecedented for the UAE, which achieved comparable growth rates during the 2013-2015 recovery cycle. The critical variable is whether non-oil sector expansion can compensate for any softness in hydrocarbon revenues during the programme’s second half.
Current Assessment: At Risk — requires acceleration to close widening trajectory gap.