Emiratisation — the systematic integration of UAE nationals into private sector employment — is the social compact cornerstone of We the UAE 2031. The programme mandates that private companies with 50 or more employees increase their Emirati workforce by 2 per cent annually, targeting a meaningful shift from near-total national reliance on government employment toward a diversified employment base. The Nafis programme provides the incentive and enforcement infrastructure.
Target vs. Actual Performance
| Year | Cumulative Emirati Private Sector Hires (Target) | Actual | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12,000 (Baseline new hires) | 12,000 | Baseline |
| 2023 | 24,000 | 28,500 | Exceeding |
| 2024 | 36,000 | 42,200 | Exceeding |
| 2025 | 50,000 | 53,000 (est.) | Exceeding |
| 2026 | 65,000 | — | Pending |
| 2031 | 125,000+ | — | Target |
Compliance Rate by Company Size (2024)
| Company Size | Compliance Rate (%) | Average Emiratis Employed | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1,000+ employees | 94.2% | 48 | Stable |
| 500-999 employees | 87.5% | 22 | Improving |
| 200-499 employees | 78.3% | 11 | Improving |
| 50-199 employees | 64.8% | 4 | Lagging |
Sector Distribution of Emirati Private Sector Employment (2024)
| Sector | Share of Emirati Hires (%) | Average Salary (AED/month) |
|---|---|---|
| Banking and finance | 26.4% | 22,500 |
| Real estate | 14.8% | 18,200 |
| Retail and wholesale | 12.1% | 14,800 |
| Technology | 10.6% | 24,100 |
| Insurance | 8.2% | 19,600 |
| Healthcare (private) | 6.5% | 20,800 |
| Hospitality | 5.8% | 13,200 |
| Other | 15.6% | 16,400 |
Progress Rate Analysis
Emiratisation is the rare We the UAE 2031 target where actual performance has consistently exceeded projections. The Nafis programme’s combination of salary support (up to AED 7,000/month for five years), training subsidies, and non-compliance penalties (AED 6,000 per month per missing Emirati employee) has created a powerful compliance incentive. The banking and finance sector has led adoption, partly because CBUAE regulatory pressure supplements the Nafis framework.
The quality dimension is more nuanced than the quantity data suggests. A significant portion of Emirati private sector employment remains in entry-level and mid-level administrative roles. The programme’s long-term sustainability depends on nationals progressing into skilled technical, managerial, and leadership positions where they generate genuine productivity rather than occupying quota-driven placements.
Risk Factors
| Risk | Severity | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Job quality vs. quantity mismatch | High | Undermines programme legitimacy |
| Retention rate decline | Medium | Nationals returning to government after subsidy period |
| SME compliance gap | Medium | Smaller firms struggling with mandate costs |
| Private sector salary expectations | Medium | Public-private salary gap persists |
| Economic slowdown reducing total hiring | Low-Medium | Reduces absolute absorption capacity |
Outlook
Emiratisation is exceeding its quantitative targets, reflecting the effectiveness of the Nafis penalty-and-incentive structure. The programme’s next phase must focus on quality metrics — retention rates beyond the subsidy period, career progression, and skill development — to ensure that the numbers translate into genuine economic participation rather than compliance-driven employment. The 125,000 cumulative hire target by 2031 appears achievable on current trajectory; the more important question is whether these positions become permanent features of private sector labour markets.
Current Assessment: Exceeding Target — quantity metrics strong, quality metrics require monitoring.