The top-5 global competitiveness target encapsulates the UAE’s broader ambition to be measured against advanced economies rather than regional peers. This composite target spans multiple international indices — principally the IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook and the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report — and requires sustained improvement across institutional quality, infrastructure, innovation capacity, and business dynamism.
Target vs. Actual Performance
| Index | 2022 Rank | 2023 Rank | 2024 Rank | 2025 Rank (est.) | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMD World Competitiveness | 12 | 10 | 7 | 7 | Top 5 |
| WEF Global Competitiveness | 25 | 18 | 16 | 14 (proj.) | Top 5 |
| World Bank Ease of Doing Business* | 16 | — | — | — | Top 5 |
| Global Innovation Index | 36 | 32 | 28 | 25 (proj.) | Top 15 |
| Human Development Index | 26 | 26 | 25 | 24 (proj.) | Top 20 |
*World Bank Doing Business report discontinued; successor B-READY methodology under development.
Sub-Indicator Analysis (IMD, 2024)
| Pillar | Rank | Direction | Key Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Government efficiency | 3 | Stable | Regulatory responsiveness |
| Business efficiency | 5 | Improving | Capital access and labour flexibility |
| Economic performance | 8 | Improving | GDP growth and trade balance |
| Infrastructure | 14 | Improving | Digital infrastructure investment |
Progress Rate Analysis
The UAE has made significant progress on the IMD index, climbing from 12th in 2022 to 7th in 2024. This trajectory suggests a top-5 ranking is achievable by 2027-2028, well within the 2031 programme horizon. The gains have been driven by government efficiency (where the UAE already ranks 3rd globally) and business efficiency improvements linked to corporate tax implementation, foreign ownership reforms, and financial market deepening.
The WEF index presents a greater challenge, as it weights innovation capacity and institutional depth more heavily — areas where the UAE still trails advanced economies. The jump from 25th to 16th since 2022 is impressive but reflects recovery from pandemic-era methodological adjustments as much as structural improvement.
Risk Factors
| Risk | Severity | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Innovation pillar stagnation | High | Caps composite ranking improvement |
| Education quality metrics lag | Medium | Drags human capital sub-indicators |
| Methodology changes | Medium | Index rebalancing can shift rankings |
| Peer country reforms | Medium | Singapore, Switzerland accelerating |
| Institutional depth perception | Low-Medium | Survey-based components subjective |
Outlook
A top-5 IMD ranking by 2031 is probable given current trajectory. The WEF top-5 target is more ambitious and depends on measurable improvements in R&D spending, patent output, and higher education quality — areas where progress requires longer time horizons. The UAE’s strategy of excelling in government and business efficiency while gradually improving innovation metrics is sound, but the innovation gap with countries like Switzerland, Singapore, and the Nordic economies remains substantial. A composite top-5 position across the leading indices by 2031 requires acceleration specifically in technology and human capital dimensions.
Current Assessment: On Track (IMD) / At Risk (WEF) — split trajectory across indices.