The 19.8 GW clean energy target represents the UAE’s commitment to fundamentally restructure its electricity generation mix. From a near-total dependence on natural gas generation, the UAE aims to derive approximately 44 per cent of its power from clean sources by 2031, combining utility-scale solar photovoltaic, concentrated solar power, nuclear generation from the Barakah plant, and emerging waste-to-energy and hydrogen-ready capacity.
Target vs. Actual Performance
| Year | Target (GW) | Actual (GW) | Gap (GW) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | — (Baseline) | 5.6 | — | Baseline |
| 2023 | 7.5 | 7.2 | -0.3 | Marginal |
| 2024 | 10.0 | 9.4 | -0.6 | Marginal |
| 2025 | 12.5 | 11.8 (est.) | -0.7 | At Risk |
| 2026 | 14.5 | — | — | Pending |
| 2031 | 19.8 | — | — | Target |
Capacity by Source (2025 Estimated)
| Source | Installed (GW) | Share (%) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solar PV (utility-scale) | 5.2 | 44.1% | Expanding |
| Nuclear (Barakah Units 1-4) | 5.4 | 45.8% | Unit 4 commissioning |
| Concentrated Solar Power | 0.7 | 5.9% | Operational |
| Waste-to-Energy | 0.3 | 2.5% | Expanding |
| Other (hydrogen-ready, wind) | 0.2 | 1.7% | Pilot phase |
Progress Rate Analysis
Clean energy capacity has grown from 5.6 GW in 2022 to an estimated 11.8 GW by end-2025, representing a doubling in three years. The largest single contributor has been the Barakah nuclear plant, which reached its full four-unit, 5.6 GW nameplate capacity during this period. Solar PV deployment has also accelerated, with EWEC’s Al Dhafra project (2 GW) and DEWA’s Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park Phase V adding substantial capacity.
The remaining 8 GW gap to the 19.8 GW target must be closed primarily through solar deployment, as the nuclear component is now fully operational. This requires approximately 1.3 GW of new solar capacity annually through 2031 — an achievable rate given the pipeline of announced projects but one that demands consistent procurement execution and grid integration investment.
Major Projects Pipeline
| Project | Capacity (GW) | Expected Online | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Dhafra Solar Phase II | 1.5 | 2027 | EWEC/Masdar |
| MBR Solar Park Phase VI | 1.0 | 2027 | DEWA |
| Ras Al Khaimah Solar | 0.4 | 2028 | FEWA/Masdar |
| Abu Dhabi Green Hydrogen | 0.2 | 2028 | Masdar |
| Additional announced projects | 2.5+ | 2028-2031 | Various |
Risk Factors
| Risk | Severity | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Grid integration bottlenecks | Medium | Limits absorption of new solar capacity |
| Project procurement delays | Medium | Pushes capacity additions beyond target date |
| Land availability constraints | Low-Medium | Limits site selection for large solar plants |
| Supply chain disruption (solar panels) | Medium | Increases costs and delays delivery |
| Financing conditions | Low | UAE sovereign-backed projects well-funded |
Outlook
The 19.8 GW target is achievable given the strong project pipeline and the UAE’s demonstrated ability to deliver large-scale energy projects on time. The Barakah nuclear programme provides a solid baseload foundation, and the solar pipeline is well-advanced with credible developers and procurement timelines. The primary execution risk lies in grid infrastructure upgrades required to absorb intermittent solar generation at scale. The UAE’s energy regulators are investing in smart grid technology and battery storage to address this constraint.
Current Assessment: On Track — strong pipeline, execution-dependent on grid modernisation.