The UAE committed to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, becoming the first Gulf state to set such a target. Given that the UAE had the seventh-highest per capita emissions globally in 2022 at approximately 21.8 tonnes CO2 equivalent, the decarbonisation pathway is steep. The 2031 interim target aims to reduce per capita emissions by 25 per cent from 2019 levels while sustaining economic growth, requiring a fundamental decoupling of GDP and carbon output.
Per Capita Emissions Progress
| Year | Target (tCO2e/capita) | Actual (tCO2e/capita) | Reduction from 2019 (%) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | — (Baseline) | 23.4 | — | Baseline |
| 2022 | — | 21.8 | -6.8% | — |
| 2023 | 20.5 | 20.9 | -10.7% | Marginal |
| 2024 | 19.5 | 19.6 | -16.2% | Marginal |
| 2025 | 18.8 | 18.5 (est.) | -20.9% | On Track |
| 2026 | 18.0 | — | — | Pending |
| 2031 | 17.6 | — | -25.0% | Target |
Sectoral Emissions Breakdown (2024, MtCO2e)
| Sector | Emissions (MtCO2e) | Share (%) | Change from 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Power generation | 62.5 | 31.2% | -18.4% |
| Oil and gas operations | 48.8 | 24.4% | -8.2% |
| Industry and manufacturing | 32.6 | 16.3% | -3.5% |
| Transport | 28.4 | 14.2% | +2.8% |
| Buildings (cooling) | 18.2 | 9.1% | -5.1% |
| Other (waste, agriculture) | 9.5 | 4.8% | -1.2% |
Progress Rate Analysis
Per capita emissions reduction has accelerated beyond initial projections, driven primarily by the Barakah nuclear plant displacing gas-fired power generation. The four operational nuclear units alone account for approximately 12 per cent of total electricity demand, representing the single largest source of emissions reduction. Solar capacity additions at Al Dhafra and Mohammed bin Rashid Solar Park have further reduced power sector carbon intensity.
The transport sector remains the only major category where emissions continue to grow, reflecting population increase, vehicle fleet expansion, and limited public transport adoption outside Dubai. Industrial emissions have been harder to abate than power generation, with aluminium smelting (Emirates Global Aluminium), steel, and cement collectively resisting rapid decarbonisation.
Risk Factors
| Risk | Severity | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Transport emissions growth | High | Offsets gains in other sectors |
| Industrial process emissions resistance | Medium | Limits overall reduction pace |
| Population growth increasing total emissions | Medium | Per capita may improve while total rises |
| Carbon capture technology delays | Medium | Constrains oil and gas sector reductions |
| Cooling demand growth from climate change | Low-Medium | Increases building sector emissions |
Outlook
The per capita emissions trajectory is broadly on track to meet the 2031 interim target, with power sector decarbonisation providing the strongest tailwind. However, the path to net zero by 2050 requires addressing the harder-to-abate sectors — transport, heavy industry, and oil and gas operations — where solutions are more expensive and technologically uncertain. The UAE’s hosting of COP28 in 2023 created political momentum, but sustaining decarbonisation through the next decade requires converting pledges into sector-specific regulation and carbon pricing mechanisms.
Current Assessment: On Track — power sector leading but transport and industry need stronger intervention.