The UAE’s aviation infrastructure is central to its economic model. The federation operates three major international airports — Dubai International (DXB), Abu Dhabi International (AUH), and Sharjah International (SHJ) — with a combined design capacity approaching 200 million passengers annually. Al Maktoum International (DWC) expansion, once completed, will add capacity that positions the UAE toward a 250 million annual passenger throughput target by the early 2030s.
Passenger Throughput: Target vs. Actual
| Year | Target (Mn) | Actual (Mn) | Gap (Mn) | On Track |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | — (Baseline) | 126.4 | — | Baseline |
| 2023 | 145.0 | 148.7 | +3.7 | Ahead |
| 2024 | 162.0 | 164.2 | +2.2 | On Track |
| 2025 | 178.0 | 175.8 (est.) | -2.2 | Marginal |
| 2026 | 195.0 | — | — | Pending |
| 2031 | 250.0 | — | — | Target |
Airport-Level Performance
| Airport | 2024 Passengers (Mn) | Share | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai International (DXB) | 92.4 | 56.3% | +6.8% |
| Abu Dhabi International (AUH) | 28.6 | 17.4% | +18.2% |
| Sharjah International (SHJ) | 22.1 | 13.5% | +8.4% |
| Al Maktoum International (DWC) | 3.8 | 2.3% | +42.6% |
| Other (RAK, Fujairah) | 17.3 | 10.5% | +5.1% |
Abu Dhabi’s growth rate reflects the opening of the new Midfield Terminal and Etihad Airways’ route expansion strategy. DWC’s percentage growth is high but from a small base, as the airport begins receiving overflow traffic from the capacity-constrained DXB.
Airline Capacity Dynamics
Emirates and Etihad Airways together account for approximately 55 per cent of UAE-originating seat capacity. Low-cost carriers, led by flydubai, Air Arabia, and Wizz Air Abu Dhabi, have driven much of the incremental growth, particularly on secondary routes to the Indian subcontinent, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia.
Fleet orders placed through 2024 — including Emirates’ 777X programme and Etihad’s A350 deliveries — suggest sustained capacity growth through 2030, though aircraft delivery delays across the industry pose a timing risk.
Route Network Expansion
The UAE’s airports collectively serve over 260 destinations. Key growth corridors include Southeast Asia (driven by increased tourism and trade links), sub-Saharan Africa (supported by new bilateral air service agreements), and secondary European cities (enabled by low-cost carrier expansion). Direct connections to Chinese cities have recovered to approximately 80 per cent of pre-pandemic frequency.
Risk Factors
| Risk | Severity | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Aircraft delivery delays (Boeing/Airbus) | High | Limits seat capacity growth |
| Fuel price escalation | Medium | Increases operating costs, may reduce frequency |
| DXB capacity ceiling without DWC expansion | High | Physical throughput constraint by 2028 |
| Geopolitical disruption to airspace | Medium | Diverts routes and increases operating costs |
| Pandemic or health emergency recurrence | Low | Severe but low-probability demand shock |
Outlook
The 250 million passenger target is contingent on timely DWC expansion, which is expected to add capacity in phases from 2028 onward. Without DWC, the federation faces a throughput ceiling near 210 million passengers. Assuming construction proceeds on schedule, the target is achievable, supported by fleet expansion at both national carriers and continued low-cost carrier growth across all three primary airports.
Current Assessment: On Track — but DWC expansion timeline is the critical path variable.