The UAE’s aviation sector underpins its economic model as a global connectivity hub. With Dubai International (DXB) operating near its 100 million passenger capacity ceiling, the strategic transition to Al Maktoum International (DWC) and the completed Abu Dhabi Midfield Terminal are critical to sustaining growth. Combined national airport capacity must reach approximately 250 million passengers annually to support 2031 economic targets.
Airport Capacity Overview (Million Passengers Per Annum)
| Airport | 2022 Capacity | 2024 Throughput | 2025 Throughput (est.) | 2031 Target Capacity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXB | 100 | 92.3 | 95.0 | 100 (maintained) |
| DWC (Al Maktoum) | 5 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 150 (Phase 1: 60) |
| AUH (Abu Dhabi) | 45 | 28.5 | 32.0 | 65 |
| SHJ (Sharjah) | 20 | 16.4 | 18.0 | 25 |
| RAK (Ras Al Khaimah) | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 5 |
| National Total | 171.5 | 140.8 | 149.7 | 345 |
DWC Expansion Programme Status
| Phase | Capacity (Mppa) | Investment ($Bn) | Status | Target Completion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current operations | 5 | — | Operational | — |
| Phase 1 expansion | 60 | 35 | Design and tendering | 2032 |
| Full build-out | 150 | 128 (total) | Master plan approved | 2050 |
Progress Rate Analysis
DXB is approaching its practical capacity ceiling, handling 92.3 million passengers in 2024. Emirates and flydubai are managing growth through fleet upgauging — deploying larger aircraft on existing routes — but this strategy offers limited additional capacity beyond 100 million passengers. The urgency of the DWC transition has intensified accordingly.
The DWC expansion programme, announced in 2024, represents the largest single aviation infrastructure investment globally. Phase 1 aims to deliver 60 million passenger capacity, but the construction timeline extends beyond the 2031 horizon, creating a capacity gap in the interim period. Abu Dhabi’s Midfield Terminal has resolved the AUH capacity constraint, with throughput growing 14 per cent year-on-year as Etihad rebuilds its network.
Risk Factors
| Risk | Severity | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| DWC construction timeline overruns | High | Extends capacity gap beyond 2032 |
| DXB operational disruptions during transition | High | Affects hub connectivity |
| Construction cost escalation at DWC | Medium | Strains project economics |
| Geopolitical risks to aviation demand | Medium | Reduces traffic growth projections |
| Environmental and noise constraints | Low-Medium | May limit operational hours at expanded facilities |
Outlook
The UAE faces a genuine capacity challenge in the 2026-2032 period as DXB reaches saturation and DWC Phase 1 remains under construction. Managing this transition without disrupting the Emirates hub model is the defining challenge for UAE aviation strategy. Abu Dhabi’s Midfield Terminal provides a buffer, and Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah are absorbing low-cost carrier overflow. The long-term vision of 345 million passenger capacity is credible but depends entirely on DWC delivery execution.
Current Assessment: At Risk — interim capacity gap between DXB saturation and DWC delivery.