The UAE’s 40 million international visitor target represents the tourism pillar of We the UAE 2031. Reaching this figure from a 2023 baseline of approximately 28 million federation-wide arrivals requires sustained compound growth of roughly 4.5 per cent annually through the end of the decade. This tracker measures verified arrival volumes against that trajectory.
Arrival Volumes: Target vs. Actual
| Year | Target (Mn) | Actual (Mn) | Gap (Mn) | On Track |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | — (Baseline) | 24.7 | — | Baseline |
| 2023 | 27.0 | 28.2 | +1.2 | Ahead |
| 2024 | 29.5 | 29.8 | +0.3 | On Track |
| 2025 | 32.0 | 31.4 (est.) | -0.6 | Marginal |
| 2026 | 34.5 | — | — | Pending |
| 2031 | 40.0 | — | — | Target |
Source Market Composition
Dubai accounts for more than 60 per cent of federation arrivals. The top ten source markets have remained largely stable, though relative shares are shifting as the UAE diversifies its inbound profile.
| Source Market | Share of Arrivals (2024) | YoY Growth | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 13.2% | +8.1% | Expanding |
| Saudi Arabia | 8.7% | +3.4% | Stable |
| United Kingdom | 7.1% | +2.9% | Stable |
| Russia & CIS | 6.8% | +5.6% | Expanding |
| China | 5.9% | +22.4% | Recovering |
| Germany | 4.3% | +1.8% | Stable |
| United States | 3.8% | +6.2% | Expanding |
| Oman | 3.1% | +1.2% | Stable |
| Pakistan | 2.9% | +4.5% | Expanding |
| France | 2.6% | +3.1% | Stable |
Emirate-Level Distribution
Dubai dominates arrivals volume, but Abu Dhabi and the northern emirates are growing from lower bases at faster rates. Ras Al Khaimah’s adventure tourism positioning has delivered the highest percentage growth among all seven emirates since 2022.
| Emirate | Overnight Visitors (2024, Mn) | Share | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai | 18.2 | 61.1% | +5.1% |
| Abu Dhabi | 6.4 | 21.5% | +7.3% |
| Sharjah | 2.1 | 7.0% | +4.8% |
| Ras Al Khaimah | 1.3 | 4.4% | +12.1% |
| Other Emirates | 1.8 | 6.0% | +6.4% |
Seasonal Distribution
The UAE’s tourism calendar is structured around a winter peak season (October through April) driven by climate, events programming, and business travel. Summer months see reduced Western European and North American traffic, partially offset by GCC regional visitors and value-season pricing strategies.
Risk Factors
| Risk | Severity | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Airline capacity constraints | Medium | Limits peak-season throughput |
| Regional geopolitical instability | High | Dampens long-haul leisure demand |
| China recovery stall | Medium | Delays return to pre-pandemic Chinese volumes |
| Global economic slowdown | Medium | Compresses discretionary travel spending |
| Hotel supply bottlenecks | Low-Medium | Constrains accommodation at peak periods |
Outlook
The 40 million target remains achievable but requires acceleration beyond current growth rates. China’s full recovery to pre-pandemic volumes, Ras Al Khaimah’s Wynn resort opening, and Dubai’s continued events calendar expansion are the three most significant upside drivers. The critical challenge is maintaining growth through 2028-2029, when the initial momentum of post-pandemic recovery will have fully normalised.
Current Assessment: On Track — but requires sustained acceleration from 2026 onward to maintain trajectory.