Overview
The United States is the cornerstone of the UAE’s security architecture. Al Dhafra Air Base hosts the largest US military presence in the Middle East outside Qatar. The alliance encompasses defence procurement, intelligence sharing, counterterrorism operations, and joint military exercises spanning decades. However, the relationship is under structural pressure from US strategic rebalancing toward the Indo-Pacific, technology access disputes linked to Chinese infrastructure in the UAE, and Abu Dhabi’s growing pursuit of defence autonomy through diversified procurement from European and Asian suppliers.
Strategic Context
The F-35 acquisition stall over Huawei 5G infrastructure presence exposed the central tension in the alliance: the UAE’s multi-vector technology strategy conflicts with American defence security requirements. The chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal in 2021 reinforced Gulf perceptions that US commitments are conditional and subject to domestic political cycles. Abu Dhabi responded by signing the Rafale deal with France and expanding defence cooperation with the UK, South Korea, and Turkey. The counterterrorism partnership remains operationally significant, particularly in signals intelligence and terrorist financing disruption across the Horn of Africa.
Key Dynamics
| Domain | Dynamic | Strategic Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Defence | Al Dhafra Air Base, F-16 fleet | Foundation of UAE security architecture |
| Technology | F-35 stall, Huawei friction | Ceiling on advanced defence cooperation |
| Intelligence | CT cooperation, AQAP operations | Operational trust reservoir |
| Strategic | US Indo-Pacific rebalancing | Conditional Gulf security guarantees |
| Economic | Trade, investment, energy markets | Broad commercial interdependence |
UAE Positioning
The UAE is transitioning from a dependent junior partner to a more autonomous actor expecting reciprocity from Washington. Abu Dhabi maintains the US alliance as the primary security pillar while building redundancy through European and Asian defence partnerships. The strategy is to remain indispensable to US regional interests through hosting military infrastructure, contributing to coalition operations, and serving as a diplomatic interlocutor across multiple conflicts. This positions the federation to extract maximum value from the alliance while hedging against its potential erosion.
Vision 2031 Implications
The 2031 framework requires a stable security environment that only the US alliance can currently guarantee. If American disengagement from the Gulf accelerates, the UAE would face increased defence costs and greater reliance on alternative security providers. The technology access question is critical: full participation in Western advanced defence ecosystems requires resolving the Chinese infrastructure dilemma. Abu Dhabi’s ability to navigate this tension will determine whether the US partnership remains an enabler or a constraint on Vision 2031 objectives.