The Hedging Doctrine
The UAE’s foreign policy architecture is built on a principle that defies the binary logic of great-power competition: strategic omnidirectionality. Rather than aligning exclusively with any single bloc, Abu Dhabi has constructed a network of overlapping partnerships that allow it to extract value from every major geopolitical current simultaneously. This is not passive non-alignment. It is an active, deliberate strategy that requires constant diplomatic calibration and a willingness to absorb friction from partners who would prefer exclusivity.
Under President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, this doctrine has been elevated from a regional survival mechanism to a global positioning strategy. The UAE simultaneously hosts the largest US military facility in the Middle East at Al Dhafra Air Base, maintains a comprehensive strategic partnership with China that includes sensitive technology cooperation, deepens energy and defence ties with Russia despite Western sanctions pressure, and expands its economic corridor with India through the CEPA framework. Each of these relationships is managed in parallel, with Abu Dhabi carefully delineating the boundaries of each partnership to minimise direct conflicts between them.
Geographic and Economic Leverage
The UAE’s positioning strategy is underwritten by structural advantages that few nations of comparable size possess. Geographically, the federation sits at the intersection of three continents, with 60 percent of the world’s population within an eight-hour flight radius. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of global oil supply transits, lies at the UAE’s northeastern border. Jebel Ali Port in Dubai is the largest port in the Middle East and a critical node in global supply chains connecting Asian manufacturing to European and African markets.
Economically, the UAE leverages its sovereign wealth — estimated at over USD 1.5 trillion across its major funds — as a diplomatic instrument. Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Mubadala, and ADQ deploy capital strategically across Western technology firms, Asian infrastructure projects, and African resource assets. These investments create interdependencies that reinforce political relationships and provide Abu Dhabi with leverage that transcends its demographic weight.
Managing Competing Pressures
The balancing act carries real costs and risks. Washington’s concerns over Huawei 5G infrastructure deployment and Chinese involvement in UAE port facilities have at times strained the bilateral defence relationship, most visibly in the stalling of the F-35 procurement process. Simultaneously, the UAE’s participation in OPEC+ production agreements — coordinated with Russia — has periodically created diplomatic tension with Western allies seeking lower energy prices.
Abu Dhabi manages these pressures through compartmentalisation: defence cooperation with the US operates on a separate track from technology partnerships with China, which in turn is distinct from energy coordination with Russia. This compartmentalised approach works as long as great-power competition does not escalate to the point where partners demand explicit alignment choices. The central risk in the UAE’s strategic calculus is a scenario in which the geopolitical environment becomes so polarised that the middle ground it occupies ceases to exist.
Risk Assessment
The sustainability of the UAE’s hedging strategy depends on several variables. First, the trajectory of US-China competition: a sharp escalation toward technological decoupling or military confrontation in the Indo-Pacific would compress the space for dual engagement. Second, the stability of the Gulf security environment: any direct threat to UAE sovereignty would force a rapid prioritisation of defence partnerships. Third, the domestic legitimacy of the strategy: as long as economic prosperity is maintained, the Emirati population has limited incentive to question the complexity of the nation’s external alignments.
The We the UAE 2031 vision explicitly embeds this multi-vector approach into the federation’s long-term planning framework. The strategy document’s emphasis on becoming a global hub for trade, technology, and talent is only achievable if the UAE can continue to transact with all major economic blocs without being forced into exclusionary alignments.
Strategic Outlook
The UAE is positioning itself not as a swing state that oscillates between blocs, but as a permanent bridge — a jurisdiction where competing powers can transact, negotiate, and coexist in economic space even when political relations are strained. If Abu Dhabi can sustain this posture through the turbulence of the current geopolitical transition, the federation will emerge as one of the most influential small states in modern diplomatic history. The risk is that the very multipolarity the UAE seeks to exploit may ultimately demand the binary choices it has so far avoided.