Security Environment
The UAE’s security environment is shaped by a set of interconnected threats that range from conventional military risks to asymmetric and hybrid challenges. Iran remains the primary strategic concern, with its nuclear programme, ballistic missile capabilities, and network of regional proxy forces — including the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and various militias in Iraq — constituting the most significant security challenge to Gulf stability. The Houthi drone and missile attacks on Abu Dhabi in January 2022 demonstrated that the UAE’s economic infrastructure is vulnerable to asymmetric threats originating from Yemen, even as the federation had reduced its direct military involvement in the Yemen conflict.
Beyond Iran, the UAE faces security challenges from terrorist organisations — though the immediate threat from groups like ISIS and AQAP has diminished from its peak — as well as maritime security risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, cyber threats to critical infrastructure, and the potential for political instability in neighbouring states to generate refugee flows and security spillovers.
Defence Spending and Capability
The UAE is one of the world’s highest per capita defence spenders, with an annual defence budget estimated at USD 23-25 billion — representing approximately 5-6 percent of GDP. This investment has built a military capability that is disproportionate to the country’s population of approximately 10 million (of whom roughly 1 million are citizens). The UAE Armed Forces operate advanced Western-sourced platforms including F-16E/F Block 60 fighters, Mirage 2000-9 aircraft, Leclerc main battle tanks, and a growing fleet of unmanned aerial systems.
The acquisition of French Rafale fighters, announced in late 2021, represents the next generation of the UAE’s air combat capability and a diversification of defence sourcing away from exclusive reliance on American platforms. The deal, valued at approximately EUR 16 billion, includes 80 Rafale F4 aircraft and positions France as a major pillar of the UAE’s defence industrial partnership alongside the United States.
Domestic defence industry development is a growing priority. The EDGE Group, formed in 2019 through the consolidation of over 25 Emirati defence companies, is designed to reduce import dependence and develop sovereign defence capabilities in areas including autonomous systems, cybersecurity, electronic warfare, and precision munitions. The UAE’s investment in unmanned systems — both aerial and maritime — reflects a strategic emphasis on technology-intensive capabilities that can be deployed with minimal personnel risk.
Alliance Architecture
The UAE’s security alliance structure is multi-layered. The bilateral defence cooperation agreement with the United States forms the primary security guarantee, providing the framework for Al Dhafra Air Base operations, joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and access to American defence technology. The relationship with France provides a secondary European pillar, reinforced by the French naval base in Abu Dhabi — the only permanent French military facility in the Gulf.
Within the GCC, the Peninsula Shield Force provides a collective defence mechanism, though its operational record has been mixed. The UAE has pursued bilateral security arrangements with individual GCC states — particularly Bahrain and Saudi Arabia — that are often more operationally relevant than the multilateral GCC framework. Beyond the Gulf, the UAE has expanded security cooperation with India, South Korea, Turkey, and several African states, creating a diversified network of defence partnerships.
Missile Defence and Critical Infrastructure Protection
The Houthi attacks on the UAE in 2022 accelerated investment in integrated air and missile defence. The federation operates the THAAD missile defence system — making it the only country outside the US, Japan, South Korea, and Guam to deploy the platform — alongside Patriot PAC-3 batteries and the South Korean Cheongung II medium-range system. The integration of these layered defence systems into a comprehensive shield for critical economic infrastructure — including oil facilities, desalination plants, airports, and financial centres — is a central defence priority.
Cybersecurity has emerged as an equally critical domain. The UAE’s extensive digitalisation of government services, financial systems, and critical infrastructure creates a broad attack surface for state-sponsored and criminal cyber operations. The National Cybersecurity Authority coordinates defensive capabilities, but the pace of digital transformation consistently outstrips the ability to secure new systems.
Risk Assessment
The primary security risk remains an escalation of the conflict with Iran, whether through direct confrontation, proxy attacks, or the consequences of a collapse in the nuclear negotiations. The 2022 Houthi attacks demonstrated that even limited asymmetric capabilities can threaten the UAE’s economic model, which depends on the perception of stability and safety. A sustained campaign of drone and missile attacks could undermine investor confidence and disrupt the logistics and aviation operations that are central to the UAE’s economic identity.
A secondary risk is the overextension of defence commitments. The UAE’s military engagements — from Yemen to Libya to the Horn of Africa — have stretched resources and created political liabilities that are difficult to manage. The strategic withdrawal from active combat in Yemen reflected a recalibration of risk tolerance, but the federation’s security interests in multiple theatres continue to demand attention and resources.
Strategic Outlook
The UAE’s security strategy under the 2031 vision emphasises deterrence through capability, diversification of alliance partnerships, and investment in technology-intensive defence systems that reduce reliance on manpower. Abu Dhabi’s approach is to maintain a military posture that deters aggression without provoking escalation, while building the domestic defence industrial base necessary for long-term strategic autonomy. The balance between external alliance dependence and sovereign capability development will define the UAE’s security architecture for the next decade.