February 23, 2026
Methodology About Newsletter
WE THE UAE 2031
The Vanderbilt Terminal for the UAE's National Transformation
INDEPENDENT GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE FOR THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
UAE GDP: AED 2.03T ▲ 5.7% | Non-Oil GDP Share: 84.3% ▼ -5.2pp | FDI Inflows: $45.6B ▲ 48.7% | GDP Growth: 4.0% ▲ -0.3pp vs 2023 | Inflation: 1.7% ▼ +0.0pp vs 2023 | Female Participation: 55.1% ▲ +0.6pp vs 2023 | Population: 11.0M ▲ 4.8% | Emiratisation Rate: 12.5% ▲ 2.1pp | Global Competitiveness: #7 ▲ 3 places | Clean Energy Capacity: 7.2 GW ▲ 18.4% | ADX Index: 9,842 ▲ 4.7% | DFM Index: 4,621 ▲ 6.2% | UAE GDP: AED 2.03T ▲ 5.7% | Non-Oil GDP Share: 84.3% ▼ -5.2pp | FDI Inflows: $45.6B ▲ 48.7% | GDP Growth: 4.0% ▲ -0.3pp vs 2023 | Inflation: 1.7% ▼ +0.0pp vs 2023 | Female Participation: 55.1% ▲ +0.6pp vs 2023 | Population: 11.0M ▲ 4.8% | Emiratisation Rate: 12.5% ▲ 2.1pp | Global Competitiveness: #7 ▲ 3 places | Clean Energy Capacity: 7.2 GW ▲ 18.4% | ADX Index: 9,842 ▲ 4.7% | DFM Index: 4,621 ▲ 6.2% |

Definition

Non-oil GDP refers to the portion of a country’s gross domestic product generated by sectors other than crude oil and natural gas extraction. For hydrocarbon-exporting nations, this metric serves as a critical indicator of economic diversification, measuring the extent to which an economy has developed alternative revenue streams beyond fossil fuel extraction. Non-oil GDP encompasses services, manufacturing, tourism, real estate, financial services, trade, technology, and all other non-petroleum economic activities.

UAE Context

The UAE has pursued aggressive economic diversification since the early 2000s, making non-oil GDP growth the central metric of national economic strategy. By the mid-2020s, the non-oil sector accounts for approximately 70 percent of total GDP, a remarkable transformation for a country that was almost entirely oil-dependent at its founding in 1971. Key non-oil contributors include tourism, real estate, financial services, logistics, aviation, retail, and increasingly technology and manufacturing. Dubai, which holds minimal oil reserves, generates over 95 percent of its GDP from non-oil sectors, while Abu Dhabi has been working to shift its balance through investments in technology, healthcare, and advanced manufacturing.

Key Data

  • Non-oil GDP share: Approximately 70 percent of total UAE GDP
  • Growth rate: Non-oil GDP has consistently grown at 3-5 percent annually
  • Leading non-oil sectors: Wholesale and retail trade, financial services, real estate, construction, transportation, tourism
  • Dubai non-oil share: Over 95 percent of emirate GDP
  • 2031 target: Raise non-oil GDP significantly as a share of total output

Significance for Vision 2031

Non-oil GDP growth is the defining economic objective of the We the UAE 2031 vision. The national strategy aims to ensure the UAE’s economy can sustain prosperity independently of global oil markets and the energy transition. Every major initiative under Vision 2031, from Operation 300bn in manufacturing to technology sector development to tourism expansion, is designed to expand non-oil economic output and reduce structural vulnerability to hydrocarbon price volatility.

  • Operation 300bn - Industrial strategy targeting manufacturing’s contribution to non-oil GDP
  • Vision 2031 - The national framework prioritizing non-oil growth
  • ADNOC - The oil company whose transformation parallels the non-oil shift
  • Free Zone - Economic zones driving non-oil business activity