February 23, 2026
Methodology About Newsletter
WE THE UAE 2031
The Vanderbilt Terminal for the UAE's National Transformation
INDEPENDENT GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE FOR THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
UAE GDP: AED 2.03T ▲ 5.7% | Non-Oil GDP Share: 84.3% ▼ -5.2pp | FDI Inflows: $45.6B ▲ 48.7% | GDP Growth: 4.0% ▲ -0.3pp vs 2023 | Inflation: 1.7% ▼ +0.0pp vs 2023 | Female Participation: 55.1% ▲ +0.6pp vs 2023 | Population: 11.0M ▲ 4.8% | Emiratisation Rate: 12.5% ▲ 2.1pp | Global Competitiveness: #7 ▲ 3 places | Clean Energy Capacity: 7.2 GW ▲ 18.4% | ADX Index: 9,842 ▲ 4.7% | DFM Index: 4,621 ▲ 6.2% | UAE GDP: AED 2.03T ▲ 5.7% | Non-Oil GDP Share: 84.3% ▼ -5.2pp | FDI Inflows: $45.6B ▲ 48.7% | GDP Growth: 4.0% ▲ -0.3pp vs 2023 | Inflation: 1.7% ▼ +0.0pp vs 2023 | Female Participation: 55.1% ▲ +0.6pp vs 2023 | Population: 11.0M ▲ 4.8% | Emiratisation Rate: 12.5% ▲ 2.1pp | Global Competitiveness: #7 ▲ 3 places | Clean Energy Capacity: 7.2 GW ▲ 18.4% | ADX Index: 9,842 ▲ 4.7% | DFM Index: 4,621 ▲ 6.2% |

Definition

A Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) is a bilateral trade agreement that goes beyond traditional free trade agreements by encompassing not only tariff reductions and market access for goods but also services trade liberalization, investment protection, intellectual property frameworks, digital trade provisions, and regulatory cooperation. The UAE has adopted the CEPA format as its primary instrument for expanding and deepening bilateral economic relationships with key trading partners worldwide.

UAE Context

The UAE launched an ambitious CEPA program in 2021 as part of the Projects of the 50 initiative, targeting agreements with eight major economies. The first and most significant CEPA was signed with India in February 2022, entering into force in May 2022. This was followed by agreements with Israel, Turkey, Indonesia, and other nations. The India CEPA alone was projected to increase bilateral trade from approximately USD 60 billion to USD 100 billion within five years by eliminating or reducing tariffs on over 90 percent of traded goods. The program is overseen by the Ministry of Economy and reflects a deliberate shift from the UAE’s historical reliance on GCC-level trade negotiations to a more proactive bilateral approach.

Key Data

  • Program launch: 2021 as part of Projects of the 50
  • India CEPA: Signed February 2022, the first comprehensive trade deal between the two countries
  • India trade target: USD 100 billion in bilateral trade within five years
  • Israel CEPA: Signed May 2022 following the Abraham Accords
  • Turkey CEPA: Signed March 2023
  • Scope: Goods tariffs, services access, investment, digital trade, government procurement
  • Lead ministry: Ministry of Economy

Significance for Vision 2031

The CEPA program is the primary trade policy tool for achieving the Vision 2031 target of AED 4 trillion in non-oil foreign trade. By securing preferential access to major markets, these agreements directly boost UAE exports, attract foreign investment, and deepen integration into global supply chains. CEPAs also support Operation 300bn by giving UAE manufacturers competitive access to large consumer markets, making domestic production more viable and export-oriented.

  • Abraham Accords - Diplomatic framework that enabled the UAE-Israel CEPA
  • Non-Oil GDP - Economic metric that CEPAs help grow
  • Operation 300bn - Manufacturing strategy supported by expanded trade access
  • DP World - Logistics infrastructure handling CEPA-driven trade volumes