Current Sovereign Ratings
The UAE maintains investment-grade sovereign credit ratings from all three major international agencies, reflecting strong fiscal buffers, substantial hydrocarbon reserves, and high per-capita wealth.
| Agency | Rating | Outlook | Last Action Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moody’s | Aa2 | Stable | March 2024 |
| S&P Global | AA | Stable | September 2024 |
| Fitch Ratings | AA- | Stable | July 2024 |
Rating Scale Context
| Rating Tier | Moody’s | S&P | Fitch | UAE Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highest Quality | Aaa | AAA | AAA | - |
| High Quality (Upper) | Aa1 | AA+ | AA+ | - |
| High Quality (Middle) | Aa2 | AA | AA | Moody’s, S&P |
| High Quality (Lower) | Aa3 | AA- | AA- | Fitch |
The one-notch differential between Fitch and the other agencies reflects Fitch’s more conservative assessment of governance transparency metrics and contingent liability exposure from government-related entities.
Key Rating Drivers
Each agency identifies overlapping but distinct factors underpinning the UAE’s creditworthiness.
| Factor | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Fiscal Buffers | Sovereign wealth assets exceeding 200% of GDP |
| Hydrocarbon Reserves | 98 billion barrels proved oil reserves |
| GDP Per Capita | USD 53,700 (2024) |
| Government Debt-to-GDP | 30.2% (consolidated) |
| External Position | Persistent current account surplus |
| Diversification | Non-oil GDP at 74% of total output |
| Institutional Framework | Strong regulatory capacity, federal structure |
Historical Rating Trajectory
| Year | Moody’s | S&P | Fitch |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Aa2 | AA | AA |
| 2017 | Aa2 | AA | AA |
| 2019 | Aa2 | AA | AA- |
| 2020 | Aa2 | AA | AA- |
| 2022 | Aa2 | AA | AA- |
| 2024 | Aa2 | AA | AA- |
The UAE’s ratings have remained stable through multiple commodity cycles, reflecting the sovereign wealth buffer’s role as a shock absorber. The Fitch downgrade in 2019 from AA to AA- was attributed to fiscal consolidation pressures and banking sector exposure to real estate.
Emirate-Level Credit Profiles
Individual emirates carry distinct credit profiles. Abu Dhabi’s standalone credit is effectively AAA-equivalent given its sovereign wealth and hydrocarbon position. Dubai’s credit profile improved following the post-2020 fiscal consolidation and real estate recovery.
| Emirate | Approximate Standalone Rating | Key Strength |
|---|---|---|
| Abu Dhabi | AAA equivalent | SWF assets, oil reserves |
| Dubai | A+/AA- range | Trade, tourism, services |
| Sharjah | A- range | Industrial base, lower leverage |
Implications for Investors
The stable investment-grade ratings provide the UAE with competitive sovereign borrowing costs, typically 50-80 basis points above US Treasuries for equivalent maturity. UAE sovereign sukuk and conventional bonds serve as benchmark instruments for regional credit markets, and the rating floor supports corporate issuers domiciled in the federation.