Overview
Real estate is the single largest non-oil contributor to UAE GDP, with direct and indirect activity accounting for roughly 13 percent of total output. The market operates across sharply distinct segments – luxury freehold in Dubai, government-led affordable housing in Abu Dhabi, and emerging suburban communities in the northern emirates – each driven by different demand and policy dynamics.
Current Landscape
Transaction volumes in Dubai reached record highs through 2024-2025, supported by capital inflows from high-net-worth relocations, golden-visa holders, and institutional investors. Off-plan sales have dominated activity, though secondary-market liquidity has improved. Abu Dhabi’s market has been steadier, with government housing programmes moderating price volatility. Rental yields remain attractive by global standards at four to seven percent for residential and seven to nine percent for commercial.
Data & Metrics
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 (Est.) | 2026 (Proj.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai Transactions (units) | 133,000 | 142,000 | 148,000 |
| Abu Dhabi Transactions (units) | 24,500 | 27,000 | 29,000 |
| Average Dubai Resi. Price (AED/sqft) | 1,420 | 1,510 | 1,560 |
| Rental Yield – Dubai Residential | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% |
| Real Estate % of GDP | 12.8% | 13.1% | 13.4% |
Policy Framework
Dubai’s RERA and Abu Dhabi’s ADGM real-estate regulations provide oversight on escrow accounts, developer licensing, and off-plan sales. Freehold ownership for foreign nationals is now permitted in designated zones across all emirates. Mortgage loan-to-value caps set by the CBUAE constrain speculative leverage, while developer payment-plan regulations protect buyer deposits. Long-term visa linkage to property ownership has boosted demand at the AED 2 million threshold.
Vision 2031 Implications
Sustainable urbanisation is a cornerstone of the 2031 agenda. The challenge lies in absorbing projected population growth – forecast at 1.5 million additional residents by 2031 – without repeating the supply-demand mismatches of earlier cycles. Investment in transit-oriented development, green-building standards, and affordable-housing mandates will shape whether the sector supports inclusive growth or reinforces cost-of-living pressures that could undermine talent attraction.