Energy Transition Overview
The GCC’s energy transition is a paradox of global significance. The world’s largest hydrocarbon exporters are simultaneously investing billions in renewable energy and clean technology. The pace and ambition of these transitions vary considerably across the group, with the UAE positioning itself as the regional leader following its presidency of COP28.
Net Zero Commitments
| Country | Net Zero Target Year | Interim Target (2030) | NDC Submission | Climate Law Enacted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAE | 2050 | 31% emissions reduction | Yes (updated 2023) | Yes |
| Saudi Arabia | 2060 | 278 Mt CO2 reduction | Yes (updated 2021) | No |
| Qatar | None declared | 25% emissions reduction | Yes | No |
| Kuwait | 2060 | No formal target | Partial | No |
| Bahrain | 2060 | 30% emissions reduction | Yes | No |
| Oman | 2050 | 7% emissions reduction | Yes | No |
Renewable Energy Capacity
| Country | Installed Renewable Capacity (GW, 2024) | Renewable Share of Electricity (%) | Target Renewable Share (2030) | Nuclear Capacity (GW) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAE | 6.2 | 16 | 30 | 5.6 |
| Saudi Arabia | 4.8 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Qatar | 0.8 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Kuwait | 0.4 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Bahrain | 0.2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Oman | 1.6 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
Clean Energy Investment
| Country | Clean Energy Investment (USD bn, 2024) | Hydrogen Strategy Published | Green Hydrogen Target (Mt/year by 2030) | Carbon Capture Capacity (MtCO2/year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAE | 8.4 | Yes | 1.4 | 4.8 |
| Saudi Arabia | 6.2 | Yes | 2.9 | 9.0 |
| Qatar | 2.1 | Yes | 0.5 | 2.4 |
| Kuwait | 0.4 | No | N/A | 0.2 |
| Bahrain | 0.3 | No | N/A | 0.1 |
| Oman | 3.8 | Yes | 1.0 | 1.2 |
Carbon Intensity and Efficiency
| Country | CO2 per Capita (tonnes, 2024) | CO2 per USD GDP (kg) | Energy Intensity (MJ per USD GDP) | Gas Flaring Reduction (% since 2018) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAE | 20.4 | 0.26 | 3.8 | 42 |
| Saudi Arabia | 18.2 | 0.30 | 4.4 | 28 |
| Qatar | 32.8 | 0.28 | 4.2 | 18 |
| Kuwait | 24.6 | 0.34 | 5.1 | 12 |
| Bahrain | 22.4 | 0.36 | 5.4 | 22 |
| Oman | 16.8 | 0.28 | 4.0 | 34 |
Relative Positioning Analysis
The UAE holds the most advanced energy transition position in the GCC, combining the highest installed renewable capacity, operational nuclear power generation through Barakah, and the most comprehensive policy framework including enacted climate legislation. The COP28 presidency has reinforced the country’s strategic positioning as a credible voice on energy transition within the hydrocarbon-producing world.
Saudi Arabia’s energy transition ambition is larger by target, aiming for 50 percent renewable electricity by 2030, but execution significantly lags these goals with only 4 percent of current generation from renewables. The kingdom’s scale in hydrogen and carbon capture reflects its comparative advantage in energy-intensive industries.
Trend Analysis
Oman has emerged as a significant energy transition player, with its hydrogen strategy attracting substantial international investment relative to its economic size. Qatar remains focused on LNG as a transition fuel, with limited diversification into renewables. Kuwait and Bahrain have the least developed transition strategies, constrained by limited land area for solar deployment and slower policy development.
Strategic Implications
The UAE’s energy transition leadership provides diplomatic, commercial, and reputational advantages. Sustaining this position requires accelerating renewable deployment toward the 2030 target, scaling the hydrogen economy, and maintaining the institutional credibility established through COP28. The competitive challenge from Saudi Arabia is primarily in hydrogen and carbon capture, where the kingdom’s geological advantages and industrial scale provide structural benefits.